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The Louisville MSA Unemployment Rate
Below is a graph of the seasonally adjusted Louisville MSA Unemployment Rate from 2007 to the present. The dotted line represents the national unemployment rate over the same time span. The unemployment rate is considered the most widely-followed economic indicator, though it is believed to be a lagging indicator of economic recovery.
(Click the graph above for larger view.)
The Louisville MSA Unemployment Rate remained steadily between 4.5% and 6.5% for most of the previous decade until the recent recession began to affect the Louisville labor market. The unemployment rate would reach a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.3% by the time the Recovery Act was passed in February of 2009, and would continue to climb in the following months, peaking at 10.9% in February 2010. The rate has continued to hover between 10% and 11%, but appears to be decreasing along with the national rate, with which it is highly correlated.
The Congressional Budget Office calculated that the national unemployment rate would be between .5% to 1.1% higher than it is without stimulus. Since the Louisville MSA Unemployment Rate was highly correlated with the national rate over the past three years, the CBO's prediction would probably be very similar for the Louisville MSA.
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